By: R. Bambang Widyatmiko; Supervised by Akhmad Fauzi, Bambang Juanda, Baba Barus, at the Study Program of Rural and Regional Development of Post Graduate, IPB, January 2012.
As a commodity that cannot be renewed, tin reserves will be exhausted and certainly can not be exploited anymore at Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province. According to USGS data, measured tin reserves in 2005 was 900,000 metric tons and will be exhausted by 2020 if the average productivity of tin is 60,000 tons/year. This Province has to prepare for the end of the tin economic era. The good preparation, therefore, should be done. This study examined the economic transformation of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province face the end of the tin in the province. The results of descriptive analysis showed that the process of economic transformation already under way in the Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Province, namely the tendency of the tin no longer as the largest contribution to GDP Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2005. Although tin has been utilised several years, the tendency has decreased and replaced by the industrial sector at the top position followed by the agricultural sector. This study used a dynamic system to analyze the process of economic transformation of the Province, using 2005 as base year, and using a data base IRIO 2005 as the base data in dynamic system simulation. The simulation results showed that the optimal tin mine production should be reduced to about 32,000 tons per year, so the presence of tin mining would be maintained until the year 2032. The analysis showed that the dominant sectors, agriculture and industrial, have the highest value as a replacement mining sector. The analysis highlights that the agricultural and industrial sectors in the Province of the Bangka Belitung Islands are not necessarily able to replace the tin sector when no tin sector contribution to the economy. It is required a considerable time to restore the economy, because it takes development policy of industrial and agricultural sectors as a substitute for tin. The simulation results showed that if agricultural and industrial investments was increased when the tin mines stop production, it would take a long time to restore the economy to its original position. Therefore, the development of industrial and agricultural sectors might be performed well before the year 2033 when the tin mines run out. The process of model optimization indicated that the presence of tin might be maintained until the year 2033, so that there would be still sufficient time for the Province to prepare for the end of the tin mining era, by developing the agricultural and industrial sectors.
Key words : Economic Transformation, Dynamic System, Regional Development